Dnevni avaz: The EU and the US are going into recession, which could reflect on BiH as well, because almost 60% of export from our country to the EU says in conversation for "Dnevni avaz", main economist of the World’s Bank (WB) for BiH, Orhan Nikšić.
He says that the fall of industrial production and spending of the citizens in the West-European countries are obvious.
"If it comes to the recession in those countries, which is almost unavoidable, BiH will then significantly feel the consequences of the global financial crisis, which will negatively reflect on the rate of the economic growth, investments and the living standard in BiH" explains Nikšić. According to him, if that happens, the volume of export will fall down, access to loans will be harder, and it would be harder to the companies and citizens to get into debt. Recession in the countries where the BiH Diaspora lives, will negatively impact the level of assignations of Diaspora, which currently makes almost 20% of gross domestic product (DGP).
"Besides that, what could additionally jeopardize the situation in BiH is the droop of prices of metal on the world’s market, because 28% of the export from BiH goes on the root metals" says Nikšić. He adds that in several upcoming months the situation could improve, and this could bring us to the exit out of financial crisis, because the governments of countries of the EU and the US are infusing big quantities of money into the banking system, and they surely moved to the reform of the regulatory rules of the financial sector. This should additionally improve the situation on the global financial market. Nikšić says that by additional adding of money the situation has been returned to the level on which the banks were before the crisis.
Banking system
"Banking system of BiH is stable and is not in any way exposed to contributing into the American mortgage financial instruments, and there is no reason for panic of the citizens. Withdrawing the money from the banks would reflect negatively on stability of banking system, and on possibility of companies and citizens to come to necessary loan funds" says Nikšić.